| | NOVEMBER 20189E ERGYTech ReviewFigure 2-- Knowledge GrowthFigure 1-- Horizontal Wells in USWhen the exponential technology is zero, there is no exponential growth and will be stagnant; when there is zero exponential thinking, even with exponential technology, growth will tend to align with the technology but will tend to remain flat. As seen in Figure even though technology may not be well aligned with the exponential technologies but definitely it is not stagnant but growing and the industry is conducive to innovation by cross assimilation of ideas from other horizontals.It is good to gauge the health of the industry using knowledge versus time (Figure 2). Bifurcation in any industry consistently occurs--some are long and some are quick with the tipping point of knowledge on the time scale. The industry observed initial vertical drilling and began punching vertical holes, and then directional drilling and horizontal drilling occurred. Once we started punching horizontal holes, the industry became bifurcated. We are currently at the tipping point to advance to the next level--automated drilling. Bifurcation occurs when there is contraction in the space, evident during the 1980s and currently. The total number of rigs is overlaid on the plot. The major downturn during 2014 was driving the second bifurcation point. Exponential technologies in other industries drive the industry after the bifurcation point, depending on how knowledge is assimilated (exponential thinking), which is called the "exponential surprise factor." Further, it can be observed that, when the industry is in an upswing, we tend to produce bigger and more inefficient tools, resulting in suppressed innovation. Advanced technology can revolutionize the drilling process with robotics, automation, artificial intelligence, and deep cognitive science. A physical cyber drilling system can be highly interconnected with intelligence greater than the compiled encyclopedia of knowledge gained so far when combined with the power of exponential technologies. The future begins now because disruptions and advances in drilling wisdom have occurred. We must take advantage of time and opportunities, use them, and then invest them in learnings to redefine the industry landscape and unleash it from the status quo. Based on linear thinking, we believe it is too difficult and will not happen during the near future, but we should provide nontraditional solutions for traditional problems and be able to look at all operational details on the palm of our hand on the go everywhere, anywhere, and all the time (Figure 3). Figure 3--Data on the Go
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