Problems faced regarding the power market in the APAC region at the beginning of 2022, and they will also witness the power market evolving on particular issues
FREMONT CA: There are a few major issues confronting OECD Asia's power markets; Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Anticipating that these policies, market, and technology development-related problems will impact regional conversations about the electricity market at the beginning of 2022. The Asia Pacific Power and Renewables team at IHS Markit will closely watch how the power market evolves on the specified issues.
Japan and South Korea completely depend on fossil fuels, with coal and natural gas accounting for more than two-thirds of the electrical supply. These markets' governments have all vowed to become carbon neutral by 2050, facing huge hurdles in modernizing their energy systems over the following 30 years. The path to carbon neutrality is still largely unknown, as policymakers and industry participants are only now beginning to consider various low-carbon fuels and carbon abatement technologies to meet their climate targets. Given the long lifespan of energy infrastructure, the follow-up measures to be announced in the next 2-3 years will be important in creating and securing new energy infrastructure across the value chain for the next 30 years.
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With coal remaining, one of the most common sources of electricity, Australia, Japan, and South Korea all expect a major portion of their emission reductions from coal power reductions, as outlined in their emissions objectives. Even before their governments pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050, these markets were already on a path to phase out coal power. Coal production peaked far before 2020 and had been on a downward trend until last year when the economic rebound and adverse weather circumstances slowed the downward trend in energy consumption. If coal production continues to decline in 2022, it will indicate if the region is on track to achieve its climate target.
Even though all of these factors would encourage CPPA growth, renewable energy's share of total electricity consumption has remained low—the RE100 members of three markets in OECD Asia reported that renewable electricity's share of total electricity consumption was less than a quarter in 2021, owing primarily to regulatory barriers and limited economic incentives to encourage direct renewable energy sourcing. In 2022, we might see some of these restrictions loosen.
In 2022, new pilot projects will be introduced from the power generation sector, which will include import/export terminals, shipping, distribution, storage, conversion, and application, because the majority of hydrogen and ammonia will likely be imported from other markets where they can be produced at a lower cost.